Weather

At the risk of stirring the cynics i would check the rain charts supplied by Ken Ring at predict weather i have yet to be disappointed in the information i have recieved where as i am regularily let down by the met services short range by the day forcast let alone their long range predictions. I nearly died laughing when i heard on the news today that the BBC where looking to the NZ Met service as a possible future supplier.

Just a small point. The weather is a forecast and not a prediction. Small point, big difference.

Hehe. I'm stirred. I'll skip Mr Ring. Anyone who wants more info can search the web. :) I've usually found that met service information is reasonably good if you take knowledge of the overall situation and expect to adapt it as you see what's actually happening and with knowledge of your surroundings. I guess this is what you (Lindsay) were interested in regarding Fiordland, but I'm afraid I'm not familiar with Fiordland. The NZ met service has some of the best forecasters anywhere. I know several and I'm engaged to a meteorology PhD (not at the met service) who likes to rave about how pointless it is to try and predict too accurately. And it's true. The weather in New Zealand is notoriously difficult to reliably predict further out than a day or two, given how it comes straight off the sea at a turbulent latitude with very little measured information about what's been happening over the sea. I don't think it's a terribly smart technique to read a day-by-day forecast and expect it not to change as more information becomes available closer to the time, and it's a shame some people seem to demand that when it's not realistic. Even then, New Zealand has many micro-climates and pockets of weather. It's sometimes raining on my home while the sun's out just over the hill 10 minutes walk away. Try issuing a forecast for a wide area in that situation without 50% of people experiencing something different. The models will normally be roughly correct about what's forming around and coming towards NZ within 5 days or so, but they often get things wrong about exactly where or when something will hit. A system might decide to stop or speed up for reasons that couldn't be seen from the available data, or veer off in another direction and strike a different part of the coast-line. Compare this with forecasters in most of the USA and Europe, for instance, who can often see and reliably measure and better understand something coming over land a week in advance and have an order of magnitude more research to work with about where everything flows in the northern hemisphere.

I knew there was one out there. I wish there was a big diference Norm i am definitely no expert far from it but simple ole me finds it hard to understand how the met service with all the facilities availible to them get it so wrong so often and ken with his ideas gets it right so often. I walked five days this month booked the time based on Kens rain chart about a month out as usual. For two weeks prior to the walk i started to follow the met service long range FORCAST. interestingly it changed each day more to keep up with the actual weather by the time i walked they had changed from 5 days of fine weather to gale force winds rain and low cloud. Kens PREDICTION didnt change and turned out to be spot on he predicted a two day window of fine weather which i enjoyed as i timed the walk to have those two days in the tops.

It's ridiculous to think any body is going to be accurate at forecasting or predicting the weather all the time. It should only be considered as a guideline. There should be some readiness for almost any eventuality. After all, 42.7% of statistics are made up on the spot.

Hi Guys I think i better rephrase the question,i know you cant realy be accurate 100% of the time about the weather. What i was interested in was if there is a RAIN EVENT on its way is there a GENERAL direction it will come from IE: South\South-South West Lindsay

My interest is generally the top of the South, and have found Metservice tends to be conservatively negative in this area. A number of times now I've decided to go out on marginal forecasts only to have a great day or two out. Not sure if this holds for other areas, but for me it helps to keep an eye on the 7-10 day forecasts, metVUW and before the day you leave, the rain radar. Over time you'll get to see what happened and match that against the forecast - you are then able to make your own adjustments. I walked into a hut at about 9am last week, with a light drizzle. The experienced people looked me up and down. No proper gear. Just a day pack. When I told them it would clear soon and the sun would come out, they looked at me as if I had knocked my head on the way up. They were bedded down for a bad day. I was applying the sun screen 90 minutes later. Their only source? Metservice. Mine? My a number of sources tempered with my own observations. So far, so good. Of course, with the latest phones, and staying on the tops, you can frequently call on the interweb to give you the latest. Might as well use the tech when it's talkin'.

bigpaul: You can't be serious. That's all I'm going to say. Matt

My time tramping is badly affected by my job so i have to plan about 2 months out. Obviously I would rather tramp in good or at least reasonable weather. I started using Ken Rings rain charts and views about 4 years ago and with only two exceptions they have been very close to the reality. When you guys started this forum I started to watch the met services long and short range forcasts. Apart from the fact that you cant get a forcast 2 months out their predictions change by the day and the hour which is of little use to me. Im not a scientist but i have to ask how somebody can predict two years in advance and get it pretty close to right so often and the official sites get it wrong so often even changing the script by the day and hour.