Weather

Bigpaul, ok sorry I have to say something else because if anyone reads this without further information about it that could have very serious consequences for that person. Have you seen the show of Derren Brown where he sends a woman a weekly prediction of horse races results, for weeks and weeks in a row, and gets his predictions 100% right EVERY time? He really did, no kidding at all. Want to know how he did it? He explained it afterwards: He simply sent all possible combinations to a huge number of people - enough people that every possibile combination of wins and dates was covered. That way, ultimately ONE person was the one where he was right all the time. That one person obviously was freaked out by this experience, but she had a limited perception of what was going on, as she didn't know about the others. Of course Derren Brown was "right" EVERY time he mailed her a prediction, and she concluded from that that he must have a "system" that actually works - but that was a misassumption based on lack of understanding of the situation. Regarding Ken Ring's weather "forecasts" YOU are the one who by sheer luck has looked up dates that turned out to coincide with what he "predicted" - and you don't know about the tens of thousands of people who tried to use his forecasts where he got it wrong. His "forecasts" have zero scientific value and don't survive the simplest real world tests. If you don't want to believe it, get his forecast for at least 30 or so random days spread out over some months, write them down, then write the actual weather on that day next to it, be objective and don't try to make it look close when it isn't. You will see that it's no more than 100% pure guessing. You are right that the scientific weather forecast is very unreliable, especially in New Zealand and especially further than one or two days. But that's as good as it will ever get, like it or not. If you or anyone else is making trip decisions based on a fraudster's humbug weather forecast, you're taking a very high risk. Even if you're the rare lucky one where he got it right a few times that still doesn't mean he has a clue about what the weather will be like, and you can find yourself in a week long snowstorm next time. Be safe! Cheers, Matt

Actually the best advise is not to take too much notice of anyones forecast. Just take them as a genral guide. You are better to go hoping for the best but be prepared, and have plans for, the worst.

It never ceases to amuse how quickly people get vexed over this subject. I remember my grandmother talking about weather many years ago. Her advice - somedays it rains somedays its fine. Take a coat! I remember laughing out loud when an official from the met office was interviewed on tv. In high indignation and in an attempt to prove that you couldnt predict the weather produced Rain charts from two years ago ranting "see the charts he (ken) uses are just our charts from two years ago". classic own goal if you ask me. Ill continue to use Kens rain charts as a guide they work for me.

My boss works off ken rings forecasts for working out a feed rotation for our cows and as long as I have been here (2.5 years) they seem to have worked especially at the moment with the drought on that ken ring predicted would happen after summer were as met service said it would be a very wet autumn. I know which one I would rather use as a general guideline as pmcke said, even if its fine still better to go prepared as its very surprising how fast I have seen the weather change after working outside for the last 2.5 years I have gone home absolutly soaking wet even tho it was fine 5 min ago.

pmcke: Of course you are ultimately right - be prepared, have the skills, and you'll be fine no matter in what weather you find yourself. And while that approach doesn't close the discussion on science vs. humbug, it does close the question that is relevant for this forum - how to come back safely, every time. Cheers everyone! Matt

Weather forecasts come from global weather models. There are a couple of major models, which respectively get run through massive super-computers in either Europe or the USA (depending on the model), both trying to take real-time data and use it to extrapolate the global weather movements for the next few days. If you're looking at something like MetVuw, you're looking at an automated interpretation of the raw data that's been calculated from a model in supercomputers with no human interpretation. It'll show you what's in the general area (of New Zealand), but it's up to you to determine what the charts mean for a specific area based on knowledge of the topography. Weather models also aren't perfect, and often they're just wrong. Meteorologists, like at the met-service, are paid professionals whose main job it is to interpret the weather models and apply that information to specific places. This is usually populated areas, but also the various parks and so on. In the end, though, they can't be reliable if the global model happens to be wrong, unless they're smart enough to notice something that the model hasn't picked up. They'll also make mistakes from time to time because they're human, because New Zealand's quite a complicated place meteorlogically, and because it's an inexact science and everyone's still learning the finer details of what actually goes on. Ken Ring does something weird with Moon influence that's been discredited by anyone qualified who's looked at it, although he'll claim that it's a conspiracy of scientists and then sell another year's worth of books. He'll be correct sometimes, but if he is then it's either through chance or through some correlation that has nothing to do with the lunar basis of his theories. (Like maybe it's rainy on the west coast because it often is.) If people want to use them, though, I guess it's up to them. Given the options, I'll personally go with the weather models and the meteorologists, and try to have as good-an-understanding as I can about how to use that information usefully. It won't always be correct, but if I'm going to apply my own interpretation on top of the information already available, I'd prefer it to be something that was derived with some understanding of how things actually work rather than a prediction pulled out of fantasy land. But yeah, obviously one should *always* prepare for the worst no matter what the forecast says. Forecasts are helpful but can always be wrong because of their nature.