Improved mountain forecasts

Thanks for that info, izogi I've just emailed my view of support in this matter to Steven Joyce. Happy tramping everyone!

Whats wrong with using the maps and charts from the metservice website. Having free 1hr charts/models would be awesome but I can not see that happening any time soon. The only time I would find a mountain forecast to be useful is when I can not access the Internet, and that would be when I am out in the mountains and I do not carry a radio with me. How often do people carry radios with them while tramping?

I guess more comprehensive forecasts would be good but I don't see them as being entirely necessary. I tend to look at the bigger picture in the days before the trip, ie, is there a high or a depression approaching the country, then after that I look out the hut/tent window and make plans from there. It always pays to be prepared for the worst anyway. And then often a bad forecast can sometimes end up to be not as bad as forecast. Another thing that I have learnt is that when a forecast predicts showers, what is actually means is that there will be fine spells between the rain. You got to see the glass as half full, not half empty.

I also don't think they're entirely necessary. (People go tramping already without them and are generally safe.) I do think it's useful to have someone trained interpreting the data, though, especially for someone like me who hasn't yet mastered the art of figuring out the effects that certain combinations of systems will have in particular areas, as long as you take it in the context of it not being an exact science. Right now there isn't much of that in the way of mountain forecasts, except for a small number of specific areas for which the government pays the Met Service to issue publicly. Forecasters get a lot of flak for being wrong, but I think it's often because many people demand and expect the impossible from them in the first place. Predicting accurate details about exactly what the weather will do inside a mystical bubble that follows a person around all day is impossible in New Zealand. With the way it's been set up, I suspect there's also a lot of commercial pressure on the Met Service to avoid admitting outright that it doesn't know something, because businesses won't pay for that. Instead we get unverifiable statements like "scattered showers" which essentially mean the forecasters think it's going to rain, but they don't know where.

Ken ring still works for me. Im in danger of sounding like a disciple but once your in the grove with his ideas itys rare to be disappointed. www.predictweather.com

I put up some wxlinks and got no feedback or input except a grateful warm fuzzy from Lisa Puddles. thanks, Lisa. I find by the time we leave for a trip, we have a good idea of what's happening. I could say we generally don't get sprung surprises too often these days. Certainly when really extreme foul wx does come, we've known about it e.g. 3 out of 4 wx sites this w/e are saying it's going to be extremely cold here in the S.I. Very sad we have lost the free and excellent Tony Trewinnard link on Fencepost. Those Fonterra sods now make it only available to farmers!

It is also worthwhile to track down and monitor private weather stations, they are scattered throughout the country. This page contains links to many of them http://homepages.paradise.net.nz/tmcgavin/current_nzweather.html There are many more which can be found with a little effort, many of them are private and are set up for monitoring horticultural crops so I am not going to give away the links out of fear that heavy use might result in the owner activating the password protection. They are not much good for forecasting, but if you monitor them weeks in advance just to get a idea on how spot X responds when weather from a certain direction occurs. So they can be good to indicate how far inland southerlies normally go or something. Also good for planning day trips.

Hi Honora, those links are very helpful (even if they've just helped little ol me). I wouldnt know where to begin with tracking down private weather stations or trusting myself to correctly read weather maps so I find the internet and those links very helpful. I imagine they will be quite helpful to a lot of tourists that come here looking for weather/condition info too.

Yep, you're a disciple (bigpaul). Tee hee. I've spent too much time around frustrated astronomers and meteorologists to be anything but disappointed by his ideas and I certainly won't pay for them. He sounds like an interesting character when I've heard him interviewed on the radio, maybe just not very well reasoned as far as I'm concerned. :) Thanks for the links, everyone. I've even been thinking about setting up my own weather station in the past but it hadn't crossed my mind to look them up for tramping info.