North Canterbury earthquake

This paper suggests the Alpine Fault is not that deep: http://www.eqc.govt.nz/sites/public_files/3786-Ground-motion-modelling-Alpine-fault-Hope-fault.pdf "Sutherland et al. (2007) estimated that the previous events had a moment magnitude in the range of 7.6-7.9 for a simultaneous rupture of all fault segments which has been suggested as the most likely scenario. However, if each segment ruptures separately, then the moment magnitude of each event would be about 7.2 from an empirical relation between MW and rupture area (Wells and Coppersmith 1994). The base of the seismogenic zone is relatively shallow. Seismicity and geodetic studies suggest a depth of 5–12 km for full fault locking (Beavan et al. 1999; Pearson et al. 2000), with a potentially deeper locking interface as deep as 18 km (Wallace et al. 2007). Each of the last two events had a maximum fault slip of 8-9 m (Sutherland et al. 2007)."

""IAG's chief risk officer believes Wellingtonians will soon stop being subsidised by insurance policyholders in other parts of the country for living in a quake hotspot"" .... ""insurance premiums had been “hardening” since before the Kaikoura quakes. “Now you’re going to see an exacerbation of that.” A time will also come when those of us in parts of the country less prone to earthquakes will stop subsidising policyholders in more risky parts of the country. In other words, Aucklanders may stop picking up the tab for Wellingtonians, sitting on vulnerable fault lines. “What we must consider at some stage in the future is a user-based pay system,” Armstrong says. Those in risk-prone places like Wellington will pay for it...."" 12:38-15: 05 in the VDO http://www.interest.co.nz/node/84904 ps If I close up 15: 05 it becomes 15:05

It used to be considered that only 2 places in NZ were safe from geological calamity. Christchurch and Hamilton. Auckland doesnt get big earthquakes because it sits on a big puddle of half molten jelly which is going to ooze out of the ground again some day. (Think Mount Britomart or Viaduct caldera) So many historical based assumptions have been broken in recent times that maybe its Hamiltons insurance rates that should be increased. PS Wellingtons last big earthquake was in the 50s but that only damaged weak things. Wellington is as safe as anywhere else. The last 7+ was 150 years ago. We got sideswiped in both the Seddon and Kaikoura quakes though.

auckland doesnt get earthquakes because there arent major active faults nearby, the lava sits several kilometres under ground and only comes up when there are eruptions.... the biggest place for risk of a major catastrophic eruption in our lifetime is Mt Taranaki... It has much bigger eruptions than ruapehu and it erupts more frequently than other areas of major volcanic risk.... its blown itself up completely and rebuilt itself again several time in a hundred thousand years, but it erupts far more frequently than that will major eruptions. roughly every 300 years and its around 300 years since it last erupted

have to agree on taranaki being a ticking time bomb. Excluding Auckland its the closest volcano to a major city and it is capable of big eruptions. Auckland has few faults because of its volcanic nature and that blob of jelly isnt likely to come bursting out in any massive way. If it does come out at Britomart Upper Queen street would be a good place to watch from. Of course who knows where it will poke through? History suggests it wont come through a previous erruption spot so a marine eruption could be on the cards. Will it be like the last eruption in the Canary Islands or more like the Canary Island erruption all the doomsdayers warn of?

Then there's White Island. 50 Kay off Whakatane. https://i.ytimg.com/vi/uYwybZrA2HE/hqdefault.jpg And the odd lahar down Ruapehu. :)

White island doesnt have a history of big erruptions and is downwind in most circumstances. It would be a unusually big erruption to affect Whakatane Ruapeahu might affect Turangi and Waioru and wont do a lot of good on sh1 but otherwise tame because of its location. Still no history of massive eruptions. Lahas are locally damaging but nearly all end up in one river which could affect sh1 and sh3 but little else except farmland