Winter conditions in the South

Yes, I was one of those, and we have now embarked on the South Island trip that was in the planning at that stage. We arrived on Saturday and did a day walk up the Hooker Valley in Mount Cook/Aoraki (having been advised by the doc people there not to do Sealy Tarns) on Sunday. We then spent two days skiiing at Ohau. Tomorrow we head for the Queenstown area, with the idea of waiting for the forecast bad weather to pass while looking around the town (the luges also beckon), and then heading for the Routeburn on Saturday/Sunday, when the forecast is good. Should I be worried? Is the bit up to the Routeburn Falls hut dodgy at this stage? And what about Ben Lomond - which was also recommended here? After that, the idea was to head for Te Anau, spending one day at Milford Sound, and another day or two on the Kepler track or do the day walk to Sugar Loaf pass. Are those doable? If not, any suggestions for walks/tramps that would get us out of the valleys would be most welcome! We are also willing to change our travel plans..... Aedin.

Avalanche risk is pretty high at the moment, will stay high even as the weather presumably improves. I'd be staying low for a while now. Up to Routeburn Falls Hut should be OK, you can always stay down at Routeburn Flats if weather is nasty. Continuing above Routeburn Falls Hut it would get nasty and very dangerous quite quickly. Kepler track parts around the lakeshore would be OK, up to Luxmore Hut probably not. Sugarloaf pass probably lots of snow and not too sensible at the moment. Ben Lomond would need full alpine gear, ice axe and crampons. Might be dangerous with slab avalanche danger. Take care, be prepared to turn back from anything you're contemplating. The second mouse gets the cheese... This from an article in the NZHerald this afternoon: Avalanche risk warning: An avalanche risk warning has been issued for the next 48 to 72 hours across the country, the New Zealand Avalanche Advisory stated. The areas of high risk include Mount Cook and Nelson Lakes. Tongariro and Taranaki also had warnings issued. "Our forecasters are predicting some lower altitude regions to have and avalanche risk in the next 48 - 72 hours which is pretty uncommon. "Places that normally may never have a risk are now potentially vulnerable to slab avalanches," New Zealand Avalanche Advisory forecaster Trevor Streat. He said it was likely a cycle of "loose wet snow avalanches" at lower elevations when the temperature rises. "This could affect roads and tracks traversing steep terrain or cutting beneath bluffs that don't usually have a problem. People need to consider how much snow is sitting on the slopes above before moving out on the first day that things warm up," he said. He said this could affect roads and tracks in places where drivers would not expect avalanches. Slab avalanches were more likely in high snowfall that occurred in steep terrain and over a short period, he said. "Storm Slab avalanches are typified by heavy loading in a storm. Once this is warmed up as the storm passes, it can become very unstable. This could include traditional farming regions of the South Island that are potentially due to get loaded from a south to south-east weather flow in the coming days." The Mountain Safety Council advised backcountry skiers, snowboarders, climbers and trampers the next week could be a very dangerous time to explore the backcountry in certain parts of the country. "We know it's an exciting time, and the snow is finally here, just make sure you're making good decisions. It's about having a great time and making it home to your family."

My tramping clubs trip to Luxmore hut on the Kepler this weekend has just been scrubbed. DOC Te Anau are saying heavy deep snow from the limestone bluffs up is basically impassible without snowshoes. Boo! Ive been up on Luxmore before in August and it was great conditions, but them's the breaks.

DOCs advise to people on the great walks tends to be aimed at the inexperienced, they tried to stop me going in a storm , i had to argue to get my ticket, i told them i had toe experience to risk assess, they werent issueing hut tickets to anyone until the morning and made a decision on whether they'd let the rest of the people go and they'd seen their gear... snow wasnt an issue then though. DOC claimed the right to close the walk. it's debateable that they can do that legally. they cant lock the hut.. i've had a similar response at qtown when there was a bit of snow around too, i took the same line and they backed down, but i didnt end up going on that trip

Yeah. But would you have expected a Tax Payer rescue if your 4WD got stuck ?. "" "We know it's an exciting time, and the snow is finally here, just make sure you're making good decisions. It's about having a great time and making it home to your family."" - Ian_H / NZ Herald

Remember that rescue was only the people. The cost wasnt much greater than it would of been for a small group in the same place and conditions although the outcome might not of been as favorable. Remember a few years (few more than a few years ago) ago a couple of climbers stuck on Mount Cook for a week due to bad weather. If that happened today it would of still cost a lot more for only 2 people

Aye. Just heightened experience can come unstuck. I'm going looking for snow, myself. :)

You lot are really useful! There is nothing on the doc website about the Kepler being impassable, so thanks a lot for letting me know that. I don't know the walk, but I'm guessing that the limestone bluffs are close to the start? Anyway, the other walk in the Te Anau area that Ian_H suggested was Key Summit and/or Howden hut. If the Kepler is out, does that mean that hike is out too? Is there anything else in the Te Anau area that would get us a decent day out and some nice views? We had a lovely hike today near Wanaka, and we're going up to the Routeburn Falls hut next (doc Queenstown gave their blessing). We're loving it so far....

DO YOUR HOMEWORK yarmoss was only talking about getting to luxmore hut, trying to complete the kepler is suicide right now. as i said you need to be able to risk assess the situation at this time of year, if you cant do that on your own in potential avalanche conditions you shouldnt be out there.