Weather

So heres a question for you all. With the media seeming to be wrong most of the time and the met service not much better how do you forward plan your walking to take advantage of the best weather systems. I have come to rely on Ken Ring at www.predictweather.com and once in step with him have had some pretty good results. In fact Ive yet to be dissapointed.
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We just go out and brave the storm, Rule of thumb:we live in a spontaneous universe anything can happen. If it all turns to poo then we can always shorten trip/return the way we have come, minus when we are are walking form Golden Bay-Karamea (just take alot of food-14 days) If you think your trip might end in disaster then take alot of food and sit it out in a hut somewhere and tell your SAR contact you don't need to worry bout us till like 3 days after our expected return. So far we have avioded any rescues (last 10 years) Mountain Radio proved handy more recently when we rang up that were held up in anatoki forks hut after a side stream turned into a wall of water. Metservice cover their arses and make sure they chuck in some sort of rain. Remeber one forcast when it was like 'fine with showers' whats this suppose to mean?
Fine with shower means the weather would mainly be good with the occasional shower passing through. I do not go out if the forecast is looking bad, I have found that bad weather for activity Y often results in good weather for activity Z. So when the weather suits activity Y I would do that, when it suits Z I would do that. There is so many micro-climates in New Zealand I feel there is little need to experience poor weather conditions.
When I look back on it, the trips that I have enjoyed most are those that have a variety of weather. being able to cope with a storm in the outdoors can be very satisfying, but it gets a bit of a drag when it is wet all the time. Snow, rain, fog, cold, hot, wind, sun are all part of life so trips with varied terrain and varied weather can be the most interesting.
Walked the Tararua Southern crossing in January at a time that the Met service were predicting really bad weather they were partially right had high winds and vetical rain for at least 24 hours. Sat in Alpha hut 6 people made the decision to retreat based on the Met service forcast. Ken Ring predicted unsettled weather with what amounted to 24 hour breaks. I allowed to sit still for a day and was rewarded with a magic day on the tops. Its the risk averse reporting that is often wrong that worries me. It could be said that the 6 who opted to leave saved themselfs a bad day but what happens when having missed out through enough bad reporting and go anyway and the weather is truly bad. Wouldnt it be better to have more accurate reporting which i suspect they can do.
I do not pay much notice to the written forecasts but look at the maps and charts instead. Often the charts would show that the bad weather would only last for a few hours and often occur during the hours of darkness.
A couple of years ago I organised a club trip into the Pureora Forest, walking to Waihaha Hut on Friday night and then on to Hauhungaroa Hut on Saturday. Friday afternoon was torrential rain and everyone asked me if we were still going. Yes, I said optimisticly, it was a NE wind so I reckoned that the weather would be better going west. Everyone looked at me like I was mad but they all came with me. I was wrong about going west. The rain poured down as we drove to the Pureora and it was even heavier as we walked up to the hut in the dark. There was so much rain that the headlamp was only lighting up the rain falling in front of your face. It was very hard to keep to the track. We got to the hut and took our parkas off, and that was it! We didn't put parkas on again for the whole weekend. It was glorious. Imagine if we had made a decision effecting the whole weekend based on what was happening on Friday night. Everyone else must have. That was the first time I had ever been in the Waihaha and not seen another party in the area. I think everyone else stayed at home.
Waihaha would have to be the best exhibition of bird life in any forest in the north island at the moment the last visit was like going to a santuary amazing
The Whirinaki is pretty amazing atthe moment too.
Theres that 1080 debate again 2 years ago i walked the Mangamate circuit as they where dropping baits within 24 hours there where hundreds of dead and dying possums everywhere no exageration unfortunately the odd dead tui but theres no doubt that the bird life comes back strongly after
Oh my god! He mentioned that number. Anyone who wishes to continue this discussion MUST read http://www.ermanz.govt.nz/news-events/1080/Decision%20_2007.08.10_%20FINAL.pdf in its entirety!!
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Forum The campfire
Started by bigpaul
On 30 October 2008
Replies 26
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