Pleas to the weather gods
MetVUV is showing good stable conditions over the SI from the 27th onwards. A few things 'lurking' off coast, but nothing making landfall. MetService is showing rain or showers every day. Not exactly the certainty I'd like for an extended Fiordland trip. Could they make their flippin' minds up?!
Already rounding up stuff for a good few days. Don't mind walking out wet. Seems to be more wet days this Christmas, even for Canterbury. Good luck, Madpom. Still seeing the odd sleet shower in South Island forecasts.
Define 'onwards' :) I reckon 27, 28 will be fine but there is rain for Tue 29 (at least). You have a system off to the east coast, blocking an approaching rain depression (low). I think the depression will move off to the south-east and the high behind will move over Southland late on Wed 30. The risk, however, is that the low sits off the southern tip (blocked by the system to the east) and dumps significant rain on Southland over Tue and Wed. From Thu 1 onwards, should be pretty good.
Thanks for that @bernieq. The issue seems to be where that blocking high sits. A couple of forecasts ago it was much closer into the east coast, and that front whipped quickly up the Tasman, never making landfall. But now the high seems to have retreated further east with each new forecast and the front is, as you say, stalling over Fiordland. I have till the 5th Jan to complete a 7 day trip. So still looking possible - but less certain with each forecast. There are some shorter variants I can do if I get held up - just rather get held up on day 3 whilst I have a few options (and a hut!). So guess that means heading in 27th (or afternoon of the 26th if the weather clears in time).
Yes, the maps are a little conflicted. BoM has it as a high pressure and MetService has a low - which is why I called it a 'system'. I'm guessing you'll only have a day & a half of wet (and not too wet) - but, then, I'm not the one in it !
Yes - the BoM weather for the fortnight looks preferable to the metservice stuff. Can I have that one please?
1 deleted post from KaitlynDuff
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