DOC closing some facilities due to COVID 19

For the safety of visitors, volunteers and staff, DOC is temporarily closing its visitor centres to the public from today, and from tomorrow will be cancelling all hut and campsite bookings. Non-bookable campsites and remote backcountry huts will be closed if New Zealand reaches Alert Level 3.
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Reading up on what Germany is doing gives an idea of how wide spread the virus actually is. If you just look at their statistics you immediately wonder why their death rate is so low. (262 deaths in 43,646 cases vs say 4154 deaths in 56347 cases in Spain). Is it because of some special care or treatment they are offering? Some drug/medicine they have found? No, they are just testing at a massively high level including people with no symptoms. They are not curing more cases as they are just finding more. Which leads you to reason that the total reported cases are just a fraction of the actual cases. If you were to extrapolate Germany's death rate against Spain's deaths they actually have 692,000 cases in Spain not 56,000. (And that is assuming Germany has found every case which they obviously have not...) There must be so many people with the virus who, either with symptoms or not, are untested and not recorded. So, even if we were to have two weeks of no new cases, it will really be impossible to determine if the virus is contained short of being able to test everybody...
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Italy has the second oldest population in the world and a lot of them living with their families still. and northern italian cities have bad air pollution downgrading the immune system in the respiratory tract and lungs making it harder to fight the disease off... italy were slower to go into lockdown and it depends how many follow the rules, germans tend to follow rules.
Obviously all these have an influence and every country has differing environmental factors. However, if you believe these factors are all that has lead to a reported 10.19% mortality rate in Italy vs a 0.006% rate in Germany then you are being delusional. There are a lot more cases in Italy than the 80,000 that have been tested/diagnosed/reported.
Lowest death rates Germany and South Korea. Only thing they are doing that few other countries are is extensive testing. They are the only countries that know how many are infected. Highest infection rates Italy Spain and Iran. All countries which have large regular religious gatherings. Lowest infection rate South Korea. They locked down far faster than anyone else. Age and health demographics do make a difference as do genetics but the social factors and how the health dept reacted is by far the biggest decider on how this virus goes
1 deleted post from Pro-active
article on the news about korea, their initial infection rate was similar to Italy korea was very quick to mass produce test kits and carry out the tests on a far bigger scale than Italy
I wonder what the true numbers are. When it all comes out if it ever does I think there will be a few lessons This is pure guess do not quote it NZ infection rate official 368 actual 3680 A guess Why do I say this? Still news reports of people who have been in contact with cases and have symptoms being denied tests. People like the guy in Carterton that hasnt been within 100km of a case or suspect case. NZ death rate as at yesterday 0 Thats likely to be true but lets say 4 people died without being tested because of there situation That gives us a 0.1% chance of dieing because of this not the 10% everyone seems to think This thing is far more infectious and far less deadly than the experts would have you believe. In the end 10% of the worlds population will get this Thats 400000000 people. 10% death rate means 40000000 dead )0.1% is still 400000 which is the equivalent of wiping out either of our 2nd or 3rd largest city so its still catastrophic but 40 million dead would of meant the end of world order Lockdown is the right thing to do tho try and contain this but it may only be delaying the inevitable
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I think speculating on possible death rates and risk from this, in a tramping forum, is unhelpful. There are medical experts out there assessing the information and explaining what we can expect.
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Probably true but it is interesting how they are hiding the truth. If you dont create the statistic accurately you dont have to fumble it to make it rosier than it really is.
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chinese cities arent the most healthiest places to live things may pan out a lot better in NZ the air in chinese cities is often apalling, that doesnt help the health of your lungs... they dont get much sun and vitamin d which is important for the immune system plus they are coming out of winter... the northern italian cities also have their own air pollution and italy has the second oldest population in the world and span has a lot of retirees who have migrated there.. different countries could well pan out differently... the fact that it varies greatly what the effect of the virus is on individuals can mean how healthy you are could make all the difference... and why isolated individuals are getting sick when everyone around them hasnt been sick... we've only got two people in NZ in intensive care at present out of 450 known infections... on a percentage basis NZ is still doing really well. but winter isn't going to help.
The majority of those infections are still in the first 2 weeks. The disease seems to give cold symptoms for 2 weeks before getting bad if you are unlucky. Today we have our first death and 2 people still in intensive care. They havnt said if this is one already in intensive care plus a new person gone in or someone they didnt get to in time. Even if infections drop off the deaths are yet to happen. The total is 514 confirmed or likely to be confirmed. Realistically at a 1% death rate 5 will die, at 10% 50 will. Not a nice way to look at things I know.
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Forum The campfire
Started by waynowski
On 22 March 2020
Replies 40
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