Ruapehu Crater Lake overnighter

>Ian_H, on temperature: According to waynowski link, the temperature on Wednesday night will be -3°C, and a clear night. Is that not reliable information? Thanks for the tip on asking ski patrol. I'm not saying the weather forecast wayno has linked to is incorrect for Tuesday-Wednesday, but I wouldn't describe it as reliable. Have a look the pressure pictures, they show a fairly narrow N-S ridge of high pressure coming across and establishing itself by Tuesday-Wednesday. But there is still a pretty deep low to the east, it only takes a slight variation on how quickly and how strongly that high pressure moves across and conditions up there could be much worse. For an idea of how it would be if that high pressure ridge fails to dominate, and the central NI remains on the edge of that low pressure, look at the forecast and map for Monday morning. Its showing 95km southerly, -11C to -14C, wind chill -26C with snow showers. I'd say the forecast for -3 to -5, clear and calm is only say a 60% probability, put the chance of it being significantly worse, possibly -20 wind chill, low visibility and howling gale up there at 30-40%.

the top of a mountain is a weather island, its where the wind is worse than anywhere else on a mountain, ruapehu stands alone, theres nothing at that altitude to slow the wind down at all it travels uninterupted for thousands of kilometres and slams into the top of the mountain.... even in spring on tongariro i've been freezing when people down below have been toasty in warm weather, ruapehu is a thousand metres higher... even mid summer you can be freezing up there and need ice axe and crampons as compulsory

Ive been up there when it was like that. Early January. Could see Taranaki the weather was so good.Felt like a wally walking up the hill carrying full ski gear Got to the crater rim and all that gear went straight on. All the other tourists high tailing it back down the hill I got to have a look round. Still in 100 meters of travel it had changed from nice calm sunny warmish conditions to a sub zero gale.

The most critical thing to consider is the group situation / dynamic. You need to have clear leadership, a clear plan B and clear process/criteria to bail on plan A and go for plan B. If you are heading up high, do so early. I'd be keen to be up at plateau level for lunchtime, keep/have kept a close eye on the weather and possibility of deterioration, be prepared to head down in the afternoon rather than camp up there if its not looking good. I'd be much happier if the group had previous experience camping in the alpine environment, I'd be keen on making it a two nighter, first night camping much lower on the mountain as a shakedown before heading up. Are your tents good enough, have you thought through, practiced how to get them anchored down in soft snow or hard ice conditions? Enough good pegs, some extra snow stakes or the likes. Long cords on all anchor points, all places where you'd usually put the two bunji cord loops on a single peg looped together with cord so they stay together as you get the tent out. Doubled up long cords on all the storm guy points and enough pegs/anchors for all these points. Know how to tie a cord around the middle of a peg, bury it correctly, stamp it in and then tension the cord onto the tent. Sleeves clearly marked to match poles. I know my alpine tent has three poles, two shorter, one longer. I know when folded, the longer one has an end facing each way, the two shorter ones the ends face the same way. I always roll it up the same way, the end that will face into the wind on the outside, cords from the attachment points sticking out of the bag. I can identify and get the upwind end anchored down in its proper position before the whole tent comes out of it's bag then lie on it while getting the poles threaded if necessary. On a positive note, weather is probably on a general improvement, if it's clear and good on Tuesday afternoon it will probably remain clear, though it could still blow like hell overnight due to purely local mountain effects. Local high mountain weather can be strange. I've camped high on Mt Burns (from Borland Saddle road) in clear and stable high pressure. Beautiful clear and starry night all night, not too cold. After midnight we got hammered by extreme wind gusts from all directions, tent was being flattened, we had to sit up he rest of the night holding on to the poles to keep things together. By mid morning we were sunbathing by the tarns, taking photos of the mountains reflected in them.

if you dont know how to assess avalanche danger you shouldnt be going full stop

forecast for turoa skifield is -10... will be colder for summit plateau http://www.metservice.com/skifields/turoa

Just for the record, I'm retracting my 'positive note' above, I don't think this plan is well considered. It's a reasonable plan for a couple of people both with real alpine experience. For a party of 4-5-6? where no-one has any real alpine experience, you might get away with it and you might not. Absolute minimum boxes to tick for me would be a maximum of 4, leader with serious alpine experience, 2IC similarly, other 2 fit and keen trampers who have at least used an ice axe before, practiced self arrest. Full alpine gear with ice axes and a couple of ropes, tents and everything associated with camping in an extreme alpine environment sorted and practiced beforehand somewhere more forgiving. Sure the way up and down from Whakapapa is not too difficult in good conditions, but if you're coming down in poor visibility and go off route you can end up in some nasty bluffy areas where you'd want to rope up if you couldn't see where you are going.

I hate to add to some the "doom and gloom" comments here but North Island mountains are fairly special when it comes to snow. I cut my teeth being taught crampon and axe use in the Darrens in the south island, then I did heaps with them in southland, otago and around Arthurs pass. The vicious wind on Ruapehu turns the exposed snow into something I initially wasnt used to - impenetrable ridged icy sheets. I've been up there with an experienced group, cramps and axe (and my experience) and I was still shiteing myself in a couple of places that had no clear run-out, should things go wrong. I had alloy crampons and I felt like I was floating on the surface of all that ice, I wouldnt go up there again except with steel crampons.

Mt Taranaki 3 Considerable Risk Dangerous avalanche conditions https://avalanche.net.nz/region/2

we probably sound like doom sayers.. but i think the people here have others welfare at heart and care when people getting themselves into sticky situations needlessly. we've all ended up in sticky situations ourselves and don't want others to repeat the process... it raises my stress levels sometimes when i read about what some people want to do without the necessary understanding and experience. we sound like your parents did when you were young and it sounded like they just wanted to ruin your life with rules and restrictions and saying no too often...